We’ve written previously on how events such as severe weather, economic uncertainty, material shortages, and tariffs can result in serious supply chain disruptions. As another year begins with America in seemingly endless sociopolitical turmoil, it’s worth examining the potential supply chain impacts of political violence, unrest, protests, and similar occurrences.
Obviously, in locations where protests, riots, and political violence is happening, there’s often a direct impact on local businesses and associated supply chains. A report from the Democracy Fund states “Riots and other forms of political protest [often] create… property damage. Again, each incident is unique, and total damage varies widely. A single-day riot in Portland in November 2016, for instance, is estimated to have caused $1 million in property damage. The 1992 Los Angeles riots are estimated to have caused $775 million [non-adjusted dollars] in property damage over six days. In Chile, one month of protests and riots caused an estimated $4.6 billion in infrastructure damage.”
The French “yellow vest” protests caused roughly $90 million in insured losses, while protests in Hong Kong cost $77 million. But these particular examples pale in comparison to the good ol’ US of A, where the 2020 George Floyd protest riots resulted in at least $1 billion to $2 billion in paid insurance claims for property damage and loss across 20 states, according to an Axios report, eclipsing the 1992 Los Angeles riots.
Zurich insurance says that “the United States continues to be at a heightened risk of political violence and instability… outcomes are difficult to predict, and disruption and damage to businesses can occur even without full escalation into violent, chaotic riots.”
So, is there anything business owners can do to mitigate this potential physical and economic harm? Zurich suggests businesses should assess their facilities’ vulnerability to civil unrest. “Glass-front buildings, vacant buildings, proximity to large conference complexes and first-floor occupancy of a multi-tenant structure may heighten exposures. Certain types of businesses may be more attractive targets for protests as well… Organizations should ensure they have spelled out the procedures for regular maintenance and testing of alarm, fire protection and power systems. If the business doesn’t own the building it occupies, leaders should review their lease, understand who is responsible for each part of the building’s management and ensure contact lists are accessible to employees.”
Depending on your resources and priorities, a risk assessment might include an action plan including site-hardening enhancements such as gates or other barriers for glass-front buildings, which can help prevent vehicles or rioters from breaching entrances. Business owners may also research local board-up services that might be available to protect lower-floor windows ahead of any planned protests (but naturally this doesn’t help in the case of spontaneous riots). And of course, every insurance broker (and practical-thinking business owner) will want to review coverage and ensure businesses have sufficient protection from damage and/or financial losses.
One January 15, 2026 report from the Sahan Journal highlights another potential type of disruption to local businesses in areas where political unrest or activity is occurring: That of being short-staffed. Manny Gonzalez is owner of Manny’s Tortas, a food vendor at the popular Midtown Global Market/food court that sees in excess of 1.5 million annual visitors. “Through the ups and downs of more than a quarter-century in business, Gonzalez said he’s seen his local community hold strong. The past month, though, has been very different. With the influx of federal agents flooding the Twin Cities’ streets, immigrant-owned and operated businesses across the metro are facing dire circumstances. In December, thousands of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents flooded the Twin Cities metro in a campaign dubbed ‘Operation Metro Surge.’ Taking to the streets of Minnesota’s largest immigrant communities, agents have arrested more than 2,400 people over the last month and a half, according to KARE 11. The aggressive campaign has created terror within these communities. Four of his employees don’t feel comfortable showing up to work anymore, Gonzalez said, leaving him with few staffing options. His sister, who typically handles the behind-the-scenes finances of the restaurant, now has to work the register… ‘So basically, I’m just working with two [employees],’” says Gonzales.
A Minnesota Public Radio report from the same date states, “At least eight local restaurants in Rochester are closed or have been forced to reduce their hours this week as ICE enforcement actions ramped up in the city. That includes Corona’s Tacos. It had to close temporarily after many staff members didn’t show up for work. Owner Jesus Corona Ortiz says many of his workers are scared to leave their homes…It’s a story playing out in Rochester and all across the state. Restaurants everywhere from Fergus Falls to Woodbury have had to close temporarily due to staff shortages.”
In St. Cloud, a halal kabob and burger stand owner says “many of his employees are afraid to come to work. So he and his co-owners are working 12- to 13-hour days. If business doesn't pick up, he’s not sure how long the restaurant can stay open. ‘I don't think we can survive, not more than three, four months.’”
Staffing shortfalls aren’t the only issues, however. Supply chain problems resulting from political turmoil are highlighted as local restaurants report getting supplies for their kitchens has become a challenge in recent days. Tortilla suppliers in the Twin Cities are facing similar staffing shortages and won't deliver to Rochester right now, according to the report. Some owners have had to drive 3 hours away to find supplies, and are trying to buy 2 or 3 weeks’ worth at a time. This obviously puts a strain on those suppliers’ inventories as well, and the impacts can snowball outward along the supply chain.
The immediate property damage due to rioting or looting during violent protests, along with the impact of labor or material shortages during political unrest, can certainly be significant. However, the Democracy Fund report goes on to point out that in broader terms, a bigger concern than property damage is the capacity of political violence to severely disrupt economic activity. “According to an analysis conducted by Pool Re… insured property loss is normally 0.25 percent, or one-four-hundredth, of the overall economic cost of [a violent event].” One example given states that a single 2019 Portland riot cost downtown businesses over $3 million in lost revenue alone. Another data point says that in the months following the Unite the Right rally, hotel occupancy in Charlottesville fell 5 percent and restaurant tax revenue fell 3 percent.
While it’s difficult to provide an accurate accounting of the impacts of this type of political unrest and violence, it’s clear that the effects can be serious and long-lasting. A research paper from Seattle Pacific University points out, “Civil unrest… negatively impacts economic conditions, lowering GDP by 0.2 points on average six quarters after an unrest event and [hindering] long-term economic growth.”
Democracy Fund says, “The complex ways in which economic costs radiate out from incidents of political violence make… comprehensive accounting impossible. From the research, however, we can see that even single incidents of political violence cost societies millions of dollars and in more extreme cases hundreds of millions of dollars or more. Moreover, these costs can last years into the future, whether because of the ongoing trauma and injury individuals endure, from which it can take years to recover, or because of the negative impact on community businesses and the local economy.”
This kind of event has even caused 2020s-era insurance underwriters to start “paying close attention to election cycles and whether businesses are associated with anything unpopular,” says Best’s Review. This is arguably questionably ethical in the view of some critics, but insurance is at its heart a game of numbers and probabilities. The billion-dollar hit taken by the insurance industry put many firms out of business, and obviously everyone invested in an insurance company wants to prevent a recurrence of that disaster.
Risk-management firm TAL Global further elaborates some specific, recent security and supply-chain problems that can result from political turmoil and instability, and for businesses adjacent to problematic areas of the world: “Political instability in Germany and Romania can affect EU financial markets, with consequences for businesses worldwide. Organized crime and unrest in Ecuador could disrupt global trade routes and create supply chain bottlenecks [emphasis added]. North Korea could exploit South Korea’s political turmoil to escalate military provocations or engage in aggressive actions, such as missile tests or localized confrontations. These developments may destabilize the region, disrupt alliances, and pose risks to businesses with operations in East Asia. Further instability in Central America and the Middle East could lead to mass migration crises, straining resources and creating political tension along international borders. These movements may amplify challenges for neighboring nations, complicate diplomatic relations, and heighten pressures on international aid systems.”
It’s clear that politically motivated unrest, riots, and violence can have significant and long-lasting financial and supply-chain impacts on a wide range of businesses. It’s wise to take appropriate steps to be prepared.
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