The heating up of the US’s trade war in the spring of 2025 was effectively the continuation of several tariff moves that President Trump had enacted during his first term. However, the intensity and unpredictability of the 2025 tariffs has been almost unprecedented. We’ve written before about the potential impacts of the 2025 tariffs, but it’s worth going over the data to see what impacts, good and bad, this campaign in the current trade war has had after 6 months.
People today being what they are, we sometimes have a tendency toward short memories when it comes to political issues. Tariffs against imported Chinese goods are not solely a 2025 issue, since in practice the current trade war has been going since at least 2018, when the first recent impositions of significant tariffs against Chinese imports were enacted. Additionally, while we may be tempted to attribute certain economic impacts solely to the changes made in 2025, it’s important to try to be objective about things until the data becomes more clear.
The Tax Foundation points out, “Since the tariffs were imposed, imports of affected goods have fallen, even before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of the biggest drops are the result of decreased trade with China, as affected imports decreased significantly after the tariffs and still remain below their pre-trade war levels. Even though trade with China fell after the imposition of tariffs, it did not fundamentally alter the overall balance of trade, as the reduction in trade with China was diverted to increased trade with other countries.”
Furthermore, like anything else in a highly politically charged arena, data and analysis can be skewed one way or the other by the organizations that sponsor or perform it… or at least by those observing and citing the relevant economic reports. As an example, a pro-Trump observer could focus on the Yale Budget Lab’s data concerning the tariffs’ potential impact on US stock markets: “After falling as much as 15% through early April, the S&P 500 is now up nearly 10% since December 31. While many factors are weighing on markets, this suggests that any potential long-run profitability worries from the new tariff regime are not dominating market pricing.”
In terms of overall revenue, the new 2025 tariffs have raised $88 billion year-to-date, with the new tariffs responsible for about $23 billion in revenues in August alone. Yale’s report also shows that industrial production in tariff-sensitive industries has risen sharply year-to-date by 3.5%, returning to early-2024 levels, and that tariff-sensitive employment has grown so far in 2025. Those are all objective wins for people in support of the tariffs, if we choose to cherry-pick those data points.
On the other hand, a researcher or reporter with a different political agenda or more liberal focus could use the same report to prop up an anti-tariff position, citing a 7% drop in the value of the dollar since December, or the report’s estimates that between 61% and 80% of the new 2025 tariffs costs were passed through to consumer core-goods prices. The report also states, “Real imports rose after the tariff announcements—as consumers and business[es] sought to front-run their implementation—and then plunged in April; they are 7% below trend as of June, while exports are 0.6% below trend.”
The Tax Foundation’s numbers suggest that the tariffs effectively amount to a roughly $1,300 tax increase per US household in 2025. The Yale Budget Lab’s analysis is a little harsher: “The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 1.8% in the short-run, the equivalent of an average per household income loss of $2,400 in 2025$. This assumes the Federal Reserve does not react to tariffs and so the real income adjustment comes primarily through prices rather than nominal incomes; if the Federal Reserve reacted, the adjustment could in part come in the form of lower nominal incomes. Annual pre-substitution losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $1,300. The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.5%, a $2,100 loss per household.”
So, a person with a glass-half-full perspective might elect to cite the Tax Foundation’s estimation of only a $1,300 per household cost for American families, while a more critical view would likely focus on a potential $2,400 cost. Neither is easy to swallow for lower- to middle-class American families struggling with rising prices in a tumultuous economy, but one certainly sounds a little more cheery than the other.
US tariffs and reciprocal Chinese tariffs have had a huge impact on the US beef industry. Reuters reports that US beef exports have been gradually declining over the past years due to drought and other factors, but, “the drop in trade with China has been far more sudden and extreme [since the 2025 tariffs]. The value of US beef sent to China fell to just $8.1 million in July and $9.5 million in August, Chinese trade data showed, compared to $118 million and $125 million in the same months a year earlier.”
This $100+ million monthly drop in export sales is potentially seriously harmful for America’s beef industry, if other countries can’t be found to take up the slack. As is often the case, the industry that is intended to benefit from a trade war with a historically lucrative foreign customer is feeling most of the pain, at least in the near term. From China’s perspective, while the US’s drastic reduction in beef exports to the country have had an impact, Australia has largely filled the void. China’s imported Australian beef purchases have skyrocketed over the last year, from around $140 million a month over the previous 2 years to $226 million in August. “In total, over the five months from April through August, US beef exports to China were worth $388 million less than if trade had remained at the average level of the previous two years. Australian shipments were worth $313 million more,” Reuters reported.
US beef prices have continued to rise, however, which may soften the blow for US beef producers somewhat. The Center for American Progress (CAP) reported that ground beef and sirloin steak prices hit all-time highs in July 2025 at $6.25 and $13.55 per pound, respectively, representing increases of 12.8 percent for ground beef and 13.3 percent for sirloin steak since January 2025. But, since the tariff-era economy leaves less spending cash in the hands of America’s citizens, it’s still unclear whether sales of this pricier beef will remain at the levels needed to see farmers through these tough times.
Vox has been unreservedly critical of President Trump’s 2025 tariffs, and their September 29 article cites “A June study by the real estate firm Evernest [that] found that tariffs could add anywhere from $26,180 to the cost of a new home in Oklahoma to over $100,000 in Hawaii. In expensive markets like California and Massachusetts, the additional costs from tariffs are estimated to exceed $60,000 per home.” These figures were based on the tariffs on foreign aluminum, steel, and lumber up to that date.
However, these estimates were calculated before President Trump announced a new 50% percent tax on imported kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, a 30% tax on imported upholstered furniture, and a 25% duty on any new foreign-built heavy trucks which may be used in construction. The estimates also didn’t take into account the August 2025 tariff on Canadian lumber, which more than doubled its former 14.5% tax to a rate of 35%. Canada imports around 85% of the US’s softwood lumber, representing approximately a quarter of the total domestic lumber supply annually.
Vox points out, “When Trump slaps a 50 percent tariff on kitchen cabinets from abroad, American importers—not the foreign companies manufacturing the cabinets—pay that tax. They then pass those costs along to builders, who pass them to homebuyers. If a developer was planning to install $15,000 worth of imported cabinets in a new home, they’re now looking at an extra $7,500 in costs. Multiply that across appliances, fixtures, lumber, and steel, and the numbers add up fast.”
It stands to reason that the overall 7-year trend toward rising home prices and increased rent will likely continue as a result.
When the 2025 tariffs were initially announced, reporters started throwing numbers around like 15% increases in the costs of a new car in the USA. Cooler heads have prevailed somewhat since, and current estimates now hover around a 4%-8% increase in price by year’s end for many automobiles sold in America, according to Car and Driver. However, for cars priced below $40,000, the price might jump by as much as $6,000 according to Kelly Blue Book, which represents the feared 15% increase spoken of by doomsayers. Furthermore, since prices for imported components and parts are potentially hit with a 25% import duty, car insurance rates are climbing as well (since it’s more expensive to repair the insured automobiles in question). Since tariffs on foreign-made electronic components and computer chips needed for US domestic auto production are recently in constant flux, this results in supply-chain concerns and increased prices for those components as well, and these higher costs are inevitably passed on to consumers.
The CAP reported that in addition to the rising prices of beef, Americans are facing tariff-induced price increases for chicken breast, coffee, bananas, orange juice, and even chocolate chip cookies.
The price of toys has increased by 3.7 percent since April 2025, due to President Trump’s tariffs. That may not feel like a tragedy, but the CAP also reports that “Prices of some top-selling essential baby products—including strollers, car seats, cribs, high chairs, and baby monitors—have increased by more than 20 percent since April. Clothing and shoe prices are predicted to increase by nearly 40 percent in the short term.”
It’s clear that whether or not the current trade war will result in a meaningful net benefit to America’s businesses and workers, many US households will be feeling a significant pinch for the foreseeable future.
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